Tasked with drafting a joint draft statement that leaders could agree on at a summit in Bali starting the next day, officials were locked in negotiations from 8 a.m. until well after midnight over the weekend. “It was as if all the pressure suddenly left the room,” said an official from the Indian delegation, as Russia — and China — bent over backwards to allow proper condemnation of Moscow’s war on Ukraine. Billed as the first world summit of the second Cold War, Western leaders came to Bali under pressure to show that their opposition to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war had global resonance. The Kremlin’s rhetoric justifying the invasion and blaming Western sanctions for the ensuing food and energy crises had convinced much of the global South. Many worry that developing countries with strong ties to Russia, such as India and Saudi Arabia, would simply reject any language condemning the conflict, meaning the US, EU and their allies would have to settle for weak conclusions or not at all. But they left Bali not only with a joint statement with clear criticisms of the economic impact of the war, but also with evidence that the leading countries of the developing world were ready to isolate Russia. It also brought hope that Beijing was open to toning down its support for Moscow. Negotiators, officials and diplomats who spoke to the Financial Times praised Indonesian President Joko Widodo, the summit host, and the Indian delegation for tirelessly seeking consensus between Moscow and the Western camp. Their success lies in approaching the war in Ukraine from the perspective of developing countries: its economic impact. “Indonesians were smart. They started on something that everyone could agree on, which was food security, and then built on that,” a Western spokesman said. “Widodo was determined to get this statement. . . He felt Indonesia’s diplomatic capital was being used to the max and used every trick in the book,” said one person close to Widodo. On the eve of the summit, as other leaders arrived in Bali, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Joe Biden shook hands. Their first face-to-face meeting as leaders followed a dramatic escalation in relations over China’s stance on Taiwan, Beijing’s support for Moscow, a crackdown on Hong Kong and Washington’s growing barrage of trade restrictions. After three hours, the two leaders signaled a mutual desire to arrest this negative trajectory. The positive buzz from that meeting set the tone for the subsequent G20 talks, officials from several delegations told the FT. It gave diplomats confidence that there was a window for a deal in the interests of unity and at the expense of Moscow. “It was a really remarkable job,” said a second official at the Western delegation. “There was this extra focus on the G20. . . many had targeted this to create pressure [on Russia]. And we have an agreement.” Putin’s decision to skip the summit showed his concern that he would be isolated and snubbed, despite the presence of the four BRICS partners – Brazil, India, China and South Africa. Instead, diplomats said that group, plus Indonesia, proved to be the critical swing votes that decided a joint statement with language critical of the war was preferable to no statement at all. Countries such as Mexico, Argentina and Saudi Arabia were determined not to allow a split between the G7 and others, people involved in the negotiations said, and while they did not openly attack Russia, they did not offer gestures of solidarity either. “That was the first [G20] Summit where developing nations shaped the outcome,” the Indian official said. “The G20 is valuable for everyone. For the developed and the developing. So what’s the point of destroying it?’ Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, left, with Indonesian President Joko Widodo at the G20 on Wednesday © Willy Kurniawan/AP India, the next rotating annual host of the G20, and Brazil, which will follow India, have been particularly adamant that a joint statement be reached, fearing it would set a precedent for discord and failure, according to diplomats. Despite China’s late, unsuccessful effort to soften its condemnation of the war in the joint statement, Western officials saw the Xi-Biden meeting and the overall stance at the Bali summit as a potential opening for better cooperation as they sought to peel Beijing away from Moscow. “I am convinced that China can play a greater mediating role in the coming months to avoid a more intense ground war,” French President Emmanuel Macron said. “I was able to discuss this with Xi Jinping, as well as the idea of visiting Beijing in early 2023 with the aim of intensifying the dialogue on this particular point.” Western diplomats were also heartened by Xi’s comments that his government “resolutely opposes the effort[s] politicize food and energy issues or use them as tools and weapons’. This was seen as a rebuke to Putin’s disruption of Russian energy and Ukrainian agricultural exports. Two spokespeople said China was ultimately reluctant to rally alone to Russia’s side, a fear that prompted Beijing to accept the statement. But it was clear there was still work to be done to bridge deep rifts. In a notable example of the distrust associated with the diabolical ties between Western capitals and Beijing, Xi was filmed in a private conversation criticizing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for his handling of an earlier debate. “Everything we discussed was leaked. . . this is not appropriate,” Xi said, shaking his head. Recommended Chinese analysts and government policy advisers said Xi was trying to strike a difficult balance at the G20 by easing tensions with the US and other Western countries without significantly shifting his consistent support for the Russian invasion. Beijing said the war was sparked by NATO’s eastward expansion in recent decades. In addition to his meetings with Biden and Macron, Xi held talks with the leaders of US allies Australia, South Korea, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands on the sidelines of the G20 and will meet Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida after leaving the summit meeting. “From the point of view of Xi Jinping’s interests, it really makes sense that they think of a stable relationship with the United States as China’s core interest,” said Susan Shirk, a China expert at the University of California, San Diego. Officials acknowledge that the joint statement contains no concrete steps to end the war in Ukraine or increase pressure on Russia. Moscow’s decision to launch a missile barrage against Ukraine on Tuesday, while G20 leaders sat down to a lavish state dinner, made it clear that Putin was in no mood for concessions. “I do not overestimate the value of the conclusions of the G20 summits,” said a senior EU official. “But think of it this way: imagine what it would have been like if we had left here without a deal. Everyone showed a willingness to participate.” Additional reporting by Leila Abboud in Paris, Tom Mitchell in Singapore and Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington
