Gone is the 2020 unity behind a sitting president, the willingness to do without a real primary race or party-sponsored debates or even a platform beyond what came out of Trump’s mouth. Bret Stephens of the New York Times declared that Trump is “finally finished,” while conservative writer Kevin Williamson, in the same pages, argues that the former president “remains the leader of the Republican Party” and “could win again.” Each prediction could easily be proven correct. Assuming some reasonably compelling challengers — say, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, as is widely expected — the question that will decide Trump’s fate in the GOP primaries is exactly how Republican voters want to hold the torch. Let’s set aside, for the sake of discussion, the institutional difficulties the GOP would have to move on from Trump in time and focus on that voting base. We know negative partisanship is high (as it is among Democrats) and winning is paramount. But within the base there are two distinct and, at times, competing dynamics about how libs should be owned. One we could call the troll his own. Voters in this camp like Trump personally. Their affection for him is unique and probably not transferable. They enjoy his dazzling ability, salesmanship and comedic timing. They think his swearing is sharp, his duels funny and his continued ability to send large sections of the mainstream media into an emotional frenzy is hilarious. They’re laughing at the black hole of the New York Times for how sad you feel about Trump right now. It’s exactly the kind of “snowflake” reaction they love to see Trump elicit from his political opponents. Victory, in this model, is performative and cultural. Libs are most self-possessed when they scream in anguished frustration. For 2024, Trump is still the obvious choice for voters who want their troll. DeSantis — let alone former Vice President Mike Pence — isn’t nearly as compelling or funny as Trump. A President DeSantis will not reliably produce the same emotional highs that President Trump could. It would be far less remarkable, even with Trump’s nickname game on the wane. Unless Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson unexpectedly enters the race, Trump is arguably the best candidate for Republicans looking for a president who can lead Democrats to another four-year collapse. The second camp is interested in a more transactional one. They want a prize more substantial than emotions, more tangible than a laugh. They want to acquire and exercise government power for specific purposes. They have a real policy agenda: maybe they’re appointing judges, or banning critical race theory, or tackling inflation, or sticking it to Red China, or just preventing democratic shamrock governance and the policies it might bring. The transactional voter may enjoy or disapprove of Trump’s aggressive antics, but the antics are not the deciding factor—unless they stand in the way of more practical policy and power goals. The victory here is formal and legal. Limbos are most possessed when the extensive state apparatus they have built turns against them and the causes they hold dear. For voters making that calculation, Trump’s case is weak and getting weaker. “Whatever purpose they think it was meant to serve — to bring working-class voters back into the Republican fold. restoring nationalism to conservative ideology. the rejection of the authority of alleged experts—has been indulged in,” as Stephens argued. “Others can now do the same thing better, without the drama and division.” Trump may once have been useful, but a more disciplined standard-bearer could be even more useful. Get the best tool in hand. Which lib ownership dynamic will prevail in the 2024 primaries remains to be seen. The trading model is clearly favored among the Republican elite, who are telling the Trump story to the outsiders because it costs the GOP elections. See, for example, National Review’s new case against the Trump candidacy, which casts him as a loser whose erratic behavior in office has undermined Republican goals. Or see leading American Conservative blogger Rod Dreher, who declares himself “sick and tired of Trump die-hards who care more about indulging their Trump obsession and wallowing in psychodrama like stuffed pigs than winning real elections and make changes in the world.” But among the average Republican primary voter whose thoughts aren’t published in major outlets, his own trolling is undoubtedly popular. Can a post-Trump politics entertain the way the base is used to? Scrolling through psychodrama is fun! One prediction, however, seems certain: If Trump does win another nomination, many—probably most—of the trade faction will again fall in line. (Dreher promised the same just two paragraphs later.) The realist case against Trump will be turned into an argument for re-doing the 2016 deal: Even the misuse of power is better than no power.
