It’s no surprise at this point, but it’s a move no one would have predicted when Bellinger was collecting his MVP trophy three years ago. He hit 47 home runs that season and posted a .305/.406/.629 overall line in 661 plate appearances. The left-hander looked to have established himself as one of the top hitters in the game, hitting a career .278/.368/.559 in more than 1,800 plate appearances through 2020. At age 24, Bellinger looked like a budding superstar. Unfortunately, things have gone south in recent seasons. He stumbled a bit during the shortened 2020 campaign, putting up a .239/.333/.455 line in 56 games. That was still above average production, but a noticeable step back from the numbers of his first few seasons. A putrid .245 batting average on balls in play seemed to be the main reason for that, and one could certainly point to the uneven conditions of that year in expecting a bounce. It hasn’t turned out that way, seemingly in part because of an inappropriate celebration of that postseason. Bellinger dislocated his right shoulder celebrating a critical home run in Game 7 of the 2020 NLCS. While playing in the postseason, he underwent surgery in mid-November. Bellinger was healthy enough to open the 2021 campaign on the roster, but dealt with a series of unrelated foot and rib issues. In between, his slash line plummeted to a paltry .165/.240/.302 in 95 games. Los Angeles brought him back last winter, avoiding arbitration with a $17 million salary. However, their coveted season never really materialized. Bellinger’s numbers for 2022 improved from last year, but nowhere near those of previous seasons. In 550 trips to the plate, he posted a .210/.265/.389 mark. That brings him to exactly 900 plate appearances over the last two years, in which he hit .193/.256/.355. His on-base percentage is the lowest among the 151 hitters with 900+ trips to the plate, while his batting average is bettered only by Joey Gallo. He is sixth from the bottom in slugging. Bellinger’s metrics and power output have taken a step back, which could indicate he’s never regained the explosiveness in his swing after shoulder surgery. However, he’s also seen a noticeable uptick in strikeouts, admirably hitting 27.1% of the time after dropping his strikeout rate below 18% in 2019-20. His walk rate dropped to a below-average 7.7 percent, and manager Dave Roberts dropped him more and more in the batting order. With two full seasons of tremendous hitting under his belt, the Dodgers opted to move on rather than pay the two-time All-Star in the neighborhood of $18 million. That always seemed to be more than even the high-spending franchise would be willing to pay, and it stands to reason that no other club would be willing to offer that kind of salary. The Dodgers likely spent the last few weeks gauging the trade market for Bellinger, and for him to be cut without a return indicates there wasn’t much interest at that price point. That said, there’s no doubt he’ll be of interest to teams as a lower-cost rebounding target. Bellinger, to his credit, hasn’t let his offensive struggles affect his work in the field. He is a top runner who has moved full-time to center field after moving up as a first baseman and corner outfielder. Defensive Runs Saved has graded him as a roughly average offensive center the past two years, but Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast have him adjusted above the mark. Statcast was more bullish, rating him seven runs above average in just under 1,900 innings of work in center since the start of the 2021 campaign. Slightly above-average defense in center field and plus baserunning gives Bellinger a decent floor, even if he doesn’t hit well, though he’s obviously a much more upside game than a traditional glove-only outfielder. He’ll be looking for a complete reset offensively, but heading into his age-27 campaign, he could certainly recapture some of his old form at the plate. Untendered players are not subject to waivers, so Bellinger will be a free agent. He and his representatives at Boras Corporation will have a chance to gauge interest from other teams and take advantage of the lack of supply at center. Besides Aaron Judge, former Met Brandon Nimmo is the top center available in free agency. Bellinger arguably becomes the next best option in a class that also includes Kevin Kiermaier, Adam Duvall and Jackie Bradley Jr. The Mets, Blue Jays, Marlins, Rangers, Rays, Rockies, Astros, Padres and Giants (a team managed by former LA executive Farhan Zaidi) could all look outside for center field help. They are speculative fits for Bellinger, and the Dodgers themselves could remain in touch for a lower-priced reunion. Los Angeles could give Mookie Betts, Chris Taylor or Trayce Thompson increased performance in center, but it makes sense to also look to the market for help outside the organization. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter) that they are taking a look at Kiermaier as part of that search. Removing Bellinger’s arbitration projection leaves Los Angeles with about $152 million in projected 2023 payroll, per Roster Resource, pending additional arbitration decisions. That’s an estimated $169 million in luxury tax liabilities, leaving them well short of next year’s $233 million base tax threshold. That doesn’t include an approximate $20 million salary for Clayton Kershaw, who is reportedly nearing a deal to re-sign. Still, the Dodgers should have plenty of cap space to address shortstop, center field, third base and rotation depth that look like the team’s biggest question marks early in the offseason. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
